Bitcoin (BTC) Targets $104K CME Gap as Analysts Dismiss "World War 3" Fears

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Key Takeaways

Bitcoin Prices Stabilize Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) avoided further declines at the June 23 Wall Street open, as markets priced in expectations of a contained Middle East conflict.

Market Sentiment: "Short-Term Conflict" Prevails

Analyst Insights:
The Kobeissi Letter noted: "Oil reversed from +5% to -0.2% despite Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20% of global energy trade. Markets clearly expect rapid de-escalation."

👉 Why traders watch CME gaps for Bitcoin price clues

Technical Signals Support Bullish Outlook

  1. Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: Emerging on BTC/USD charts, signaling potential trend reversal (Merlijn, trader).
  2. CME Gap at $103.6K: Historically filled within weeks (Daan Crypto Trades).
  3. Volatility Compression: Suggests investors discount broader geopolitical risks (QCP Capital).

FAQs: Bitcoin and Geopolitical Risk

Q: How does Bitcoin react to geopolitical crises?

A: Unlike traditional safe havens (gold), BTC often correlates with risk assets but can decouple if the crisis impacts fiat currencies or inflation.

Q: What’s the significance of CME gaps?

A: Gaps between weekend/weekly prices often act as magnetic targets. The current $104K gap aligns with BTC’s 2025 resistance zone.

Q: Could Middle East tensions still trigger a BTC crash?

A: Possible if conflict escalates globally, but derivatives data shows limited hedging demand for such scenarios.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s resilience mirrors its maturation as an asset class. While geopolitical risks persist, the $104K CME gap and bullish chart structures offer near-term optimism.

👉 Mastering Bitcoin volatility: A trader’s guide