Both traditional and crypto markets have stabilized over the past 48 hours, yet key volatility indices remain elevated—urging caution for bulls anticipating sustained upward momentum.
Market Snapshot
- Bitcoin (BTC): Briefly surpassed $92,700**, recovering from Tuesday’s low of **$81,500.
- Top Gainers: MOVE, CRO, ONDO, and Render surged 10–17%.
- Leading Subsectors: AI, gaming, and Layer 2 tokens outperformed.
Volatility Indicators
- BVIV Index: Held near 66%, far above February’s 49.6% low.
Traditional Markets:
- VIX (Fear Gauge): 23.65, highest since mid-December.
- MOVE Index (Treasury Volatility): 104, a November peak.
👉 Stay updated on crypto volatility trends
Key Drivers
- Trump’s Crypto Summit: Rumors of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement.
- Macro Sentiment: Fiscal support from Germany/China and tempered tariff fears bolstered risk assets.
FAQs
Q: Why are volatility indices still high?
A: Traders view Trump’s summit as a make-or-break event for crypto policy clarity.
Q: How does Treasury volatility impact crypto?
A: Bond turbulence can tighten financial conditions, pressuring risk assets like BTC—though a weaker dollar may offset this.
Yield Curve Inversion
- 10yr vs. 3mo Spread: Turned negative, signaling potential recession.
- GDPNow Forecast: Q1 contraction at ~3%, with updates eyed for directional cues.
Upcoming Events
Crypto Highlights
| Date | Event |
|------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Mar 7 | White House Crypto Summit (Trump hosts industry leaders) |
| Mar 12 | Hemi L2 blockchain mainnet launch (BTC/ETH compatible) |
| Mar 16 | CME’s SOL futures trading begins |
Macro Watch
- Mar 6: ECB rate decision (est. cut to 2.65%).
- Mar 8: China’s CPI/PPI data release.
Derivatives Outlook
- Funding Rates: Mostly positive (except ADA, XRP, TON).
- Institutional Caution: CME BTC/ETH open interest stagnant.
Technical Analysis
- BTC Resistance: Testing descending trendline from all-time highs.
- Support Level: 200-day MA (~$83K).
👉 Explore crypto trading strategies
ETF Flows
| Fund | Daily Flow | Total Holdings |
|------------|------------|----------------------|
| BTC ETFs | +$22.1M | 1.128M BTC |
| ETH ETFs | -$63.3M | 3.635M ETH |
Data: Farside Investors
Final Thought
As Noelle Acheson notes:
“The tussle between risk-off sentiment and crypto’s ‘safe haven’ narrative continues, with White House news pivotal for short-term momentum.”
Stay alert—Friday’s summit could redefine market trajectories.