The price of Bitcoin began 2024 with strong momentum, further boosted by the launch of spot ETFs in January. The cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March but has since slowed down, leaving many investors questioning whether the bull cycle has ended. A recent report from blockchain firm IntoTheBlock provides insights into Bitcoin's halving year behavior and potential cycle timeline.
Bitcoin Price Declines 12% Post-Halving
The fourth Bitcoin halving event in April reduced miners' rewards from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block. Historically, halvings are considered bullish, but Bitcoin's price has dropped 12% from its halving value of $63,900. Despite this decline, IntoTheBlock suggests the cycle peak may still be ahead.
Historical Patterns Indicate 2025 Peak
According to IntoTheBlock's analysis, the average time between a Bitcoin halving and the next cycle peak is 480 days. Based on this pattern, the current bull run could peak around summer 2025. Bitcoin has been consolidating between $55,000 and $69,000 in recent months. A sustained breakout above $70,000 could signal the bull cycle's resumption.
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When Will the Bull Market Return?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that Bitcoin is in the mid-phase of its bull cycle, with the "retail bubble" phase yet to occur. This phase typically sees a surge in retail investor participation. However, U.S. demand for BTC has weakened recently, as indicated by declining Coinbase spot trading volumes.
Young Ju predicts a potential rebound in Q4 2024, stating:
US BTC demand needs to recover for the bull cycle to resume. I expect this in Q4, but I could be wrong.
Current Bitcoin Market Snapshot
As of now, Bitcoin trades around $54,000, showing minimal 24-hour movement but an 8.5% weekly decline. Market observers remain cautious but optimistic about long-term growth prospects.
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FAQ: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Predictions
1. How long do Bitcoin bull cycles typically last?
Historically, Bitcoin bull cycles last 12–18 months post-halving, with peaks occurring around 480 days after the event.
2. What factors could delay the 2025 cycle peak?
Key factors include:
- Slower institutional adoption
- Regulatory uncertainties
- Macroeconomic instability
3. Why is U.S. Bitcoin demand important?
The U.S. remains a major crypto market. Declining demand can delay bull cycles, while renewed interest (e.g., via ETFs) often accelerates price growth.
4. What price levels should traders watch?
Critical levels include:
- Support: $55,000–$58,000
- Resistance: $69,000–$70,000
5. How accurate are halving-based predictions?
While historical patterns provide guidance, external factors like regulations and global liquidity can alter timelines.
6. Should investors wait for lower prices?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) remains a prudent strategy, as timing exact market bottoms is challenging.
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Note: All price data is dynamic—always verify current market conditions before trading.