"Since the 2019 bottom, we've seen three relatively short bull and bear markets, signaling the end of traditional four-year cycles."
Woo's analysis focuses on the disintegration of explosive tops that once characterized each halving cycle. However, he emphasizes this isn't necessarily bearish—instead, price action becomes less predictable as supply-demand dynamics intensify. Measuring BTC/USD against recent all-time highs may no longer accurately reflect market strength.
While echoing concepts like the "supercycle" advocated by Kraken's Dan Held, not all analysts agree about cycle-based phases disappearing entirely.
"Not entirely convinced. If we get a parabolic fifth wave, an equally aggressive drop would follow. But generally, yes, we can expect higher lows and highs over time," tweeted Credible Crypto in response.
USDT Activity Fuels Bullish Momentum
Stablecoin movements—particularly USD-pegged tokens dominating the market—serve as critical gauges for crypto sentiment. Recent data shows unmistakable upward trajectories.
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported record-breaking USDT address activity last week:
"With Bitcoin fluctuating around $41K, heightened USDT activity suggests significant market movements ahead. Thursday (83K active addresses) and Saturday (74K) marked 2022's peaks for USDT."
As the largest dollar stablecoin, USDT's market cap now exceeds $83 billion.
Market Sentiment Shifts from "Extreme Fear"
After weeks of "extreme fear" dominating March, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has rebounded to "fear" territory (31/100 as of Sunday)—its highest since March 4.
"Waking up to #Bitcoin holding above $40K feels different. Sentiment is shifting..."
— Steve (@decodejar) March 20, 2022
Last week's newsletter on the index highlighted the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears:
"Bears built a fortress between $40,100 and $42,600. Bulls need gradual reconquest up to $42,600 to break bearish psychology—a challenging but essential task for regaining momentum."
Key Takeaways:
- Cycle Evolution: Shorter market phases replace rigid four-year patterns
- Stablecoin Signals: USDT activity spikes precede major price movements
- Sentiment Recovery: Fear levels moderate after prolonged extreme readings
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FAQ
Q: Are Bitcoin cycles completely irrelevant now?
A: While their duration may vary, cyclical patterns persist—just with compressed timelines and altered volatility profiles.
Q: Why is USDT activity significant?
A: As the primary liquidity gateway, USDT movements often precede capital inflows into riskier crypto assets.
Q: How reliable is the Fear & Greed Index?
A: It's a useful contrarian indicator but works best alongside on-chain metrics and macroeconomic analysis.