The enthusiasm around the "Trump Trade" is fading.
On November 12, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $90,000 before abruptly plunging nearly $5,000 within just three hours.
Market Performance Highlights
- Bitcoin: Peaked at $90,070.1 before dropping to $85,500 (currently trading at $97,579.8 at time of writing).
- Ethereum: Reached $3,449, then fell over $200 to $3,214.
- Dogecoin: Mirrored the volatile trend.
According to Coinglass, the past 24 hours saw 260,000+ traders liquidated, totaling nearly $1 billion in losses.
Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Rally
Institutional Optimism
Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs have drawn bullish forecasts:
- Geoff Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Standard Chartered) predicts $125,000 by end-2024** and **$200,000 by late 2025 under a Trump presidency.
- Nick Philpott (Co-founder, Zodia Markets) projects a $75K–$80K range post-election, with potential ETF-driven inflows pushing Bitcoin to $100K by early Q1 2025.
Options Market Activity
Deribit data reveals surging bets on Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by December 27:
- 9,635 BTC ($780M) in open interest targets this milestone.
- However, Deribit estimates only an 18.6% probability of success.
Nick Foster (Founder, Derive Protocol) notes:
"Post-election volatility has fueled massive $100K call-option bets—a standout trade this quarter."
Cautions Amid the Frenzy
While sentiment leans bullish, analysts warn:
- Uncertainty lingers over Trump’s crypto policy follow-through.
- Traders should monitor macroeconomic shifts and regulatory signals.
Broader Crypto Market Impact
- Global crypto market cap exceeded $3 trillion for the first time since November 2021.
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded a **single-day inflow of $1.4B** last Thursday, now surpassing its $33B gold ETF.
- 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (including Fidelity’s FBTC) saw $2.3B net inflows over three post-election days.
FAQ Section
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop after hitting $90K?
A: Profit-taking and reduced "Trump Trade" momentum triggered the sell-off.
Q: Is $100K realistic for Bitcoin by year-end?
A: Options markets suggest optimism, but derivatives imply low odds (~18%).
Q: How are ETFs influencing Bitcoin’s price?
A: Institutional inflows (e.g., BlackRock’s IBIT) are creating sustained demand pressure.
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