Introduction
On December 22, 2022, Messari released its sixth annual report, Crypto Theses for 2023, authored by CEO Ryan Selkis. The 168-page report delves into Bitcoin, stablecoins, Layer 1 blockchains, Rollups, DeFi, NFTs, and DAOs, offering a resilient outlook for crypto amid 2022’s market turmoil. Selkis emphasizes:
"While bad actors dominated headlines in 2022, builders continued advancing the industry. Now is the time to refocus on innovation."
Below are 33 distilled predictions from Messari’s comprehensive analysis.
Bitcoin and Stablecoins
- Bitcoin’s Monetary Role: BTC will face ongoing skepticism, underscoring the need for stablecoin infrastructure as a bridge currency.
- BTC vs. Euro: Bitcoin’s market cap may surpass the euro, challenging traditional finance.
- Sustainable Mining: Bitcoin mining must adopt cleaner energy solutions.
- Institutional Adoption: Global government demand (not corporate treasuries) will drive BTC’s next growth phase amid high-interest rates.
- Privacy Coins: Zcash and Monero lead in privacy-focused networks, with Layer 2 solutions like Aztec gaining traction.
Stablecoin Evolution
- U.S. Leadership: Stablecoins should be a U.S. export priority; regulatory clarity is key.
- Overcollateralized Stablecoins: MakerDAO’s Dai remains resilient despite market downturns.
- Algorithmic Stablecoins: Terra’s collapse highlights risks, but inflation-resistant models could emerge.
- CBDC Risks: Central bank digital currencies threaten innovation by centralizing control.
Layer 1 Blockchains and Rollups
- Ethereum’s Dominance: Post-Merge, Ethereum will prioritize scaling Rollups and combating censorship (e.g., Lido’s stETH).
- L1 "Browser War": Only a few L1s (EVM-compatible chains) will survive long-term.
- ZK Rollups: Lower fees may boost adoption, but interoperability challenges persist.
- Modular Blockchains: Value accumulation for Rollups remains uncertain; cross-chain bridges are still critical.
- New Competitors: Aptos and Sui face uphill battles in a bear market.
DeFi Trends
- AMM Battles: Uniswap V3 leads, but competitors must innovate beyond fee structures.
- Lido’s Fee Dominance: Expected to top Crypto’s revenue-generating DApps in 2023.
- DAO Investments: Crypto funds will pivot toward DAO-centric portfolios.
- Green Crypto: KlimaDAO and Toucan could revolutionize carbon markets.
- KYC for DeFi: Regulatory pressure may mandate identity checks.
NFT and Gaming
- NFT Potential: Beyond JPEGs, NFTs will tokenize financial assets and fashion (e.g., Gucci’s digital-physical hybrids).
- Yuga Labs: Despite ApeCoin’s volatility, the Bored Ape community thrives.
- Fashion NFTs: Brands will leverage digital collectibles for revenue.
- GameFi Skepticism: Overhyped; sustainability concerns persist.
- OpenSea’s Edge: Competitors like Coinbase NFT falter; OpenSea’s dominance grows.
DAOs and Governance
- Censorship Resistance: Crypto infrastructure will expand in authoritarian regimes.
- DAO Impact: Potential to reshape economies, though governance models need refinement.
- Token Diversity: DAOs must diversify holdings beyond native tokens.
- Media DAOs: $10M could fund a top-tier, decentralized media network.
FAQs
Q: Will Bitcoin replace fiat currencies?
A: Unlikely short-term, but BTC’s role as a reserve asset grows, especially in emerging markets.
Q: Are algorithmic stablecoins dead post-Terra?
A: Not necessarily—new models focusing on conservative growth and fee-based insurance could emerge.
Q: Which Layer 1 has the best chance against Ethereum?
A: EVM-compatible chains (e.g., Avalanche) and ZK Rollups are top contenders, but Ethereum’s network effects are strong.
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Risk Disclosure: Crypto investments are volatile and high-risk. Conduct thorough research before investing.
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