Bitcoin is gradually entering the late phase of a bull market, with multiple indicators suggesting significant upside potential after short-term consolidation—potentially reaching a target price between $150,000 and $200,000.
By analyzing critical on-chain metrics, investors can gauge the market’s fundamental health and better anticipate price movements. These insights help prepare for potential peaks or corrections.
1. Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and Bitcoin’s supply, historically serving as an effective tool for predicting cycle peaks.
- Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): Measures transaction activity by accounting for both holding duration and the volume of Bitcoin moved.
- Current Insight: Bitcoin’s Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000 and may climb toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses.
👉 Learn how Terminal Price forecasts market tops
2. Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue (in USD) to its 365-day moving average.
- Post-halving, miner revenue dropped sharply, triggering consolidation.
- Current Status: The multiple has rebounded above 1.00, signaling restored miner profitability—a hallmark of late-cycle bull markets.
3. MVRV Z-Score
This metric evaluates Market Value vs. Realized Value (average cost basis of holders), standardized as a Z-score to account for volatility.
- Key Insight: The current Z-score (~3.00) remains below overbought thresholds, indicating room for growth.
4. Active Address Sentiment
Tracks the 28-day percentage change in active addresses versus price movements.
- Divergence Alert: When price growth outpaces network activity, short-term overbought conditions may arise.
- Latest Data: Mild cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid rise from $50K to $100K suggests healthy consolidation.
5. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
Measures realized profit in Bitcoin transactions.
- Trend: Rising profit-taking hints at the cycle’s later stages.
- Caveat: ETF adoption may distort SOPR as investors shift to tax-advantaged products.
6. Value Days Destroyed (VDD)
Weights long-term holders’ activity more heavily.
- Current VDD: Moderately elevated but not yet in peak "red zone" territory.
- Historical Context: In 2017, VDD signaled overbuying nearly a year before the top.
7. Conclusion
Composite indicators suggest Bitcoin is in the late bull phase. While short-term cooling exists, most metrics point to substantial 2025 upside, with key resistance between $150K–$200K.
👉 Explore Bitcoin cycle strategies
FAQ
Q1: How reliable is the Terminal Price for predicting peaks?
A: It’s historically accurate but should complement other metrics like SOPR and VDD.
Q2: What does a Puell Multiple above 1.00 signify?
A: Miner profitability recovery, often preceding exponential price gains.
Q3: Why is MVRV Z-Score below 3.50 important?
A: It suggests the market isn’t overheated, leaving room for upward momentum.
Q4: How do ETFs affect SOPR readings?
A: They may underrepresent self-custodied profit-taking, skewing data.
Q5: Can VDD predict exact cycle tops?
A: No—it flags overbought conditions months in advance, requiring contextual analysis.
Q6: What’s the biggest risk in late-cycle markets?
A: Overleveraging; always balance hype with on-chain fundamentals.