Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior—dictated by halving events—continues to shape its price, miner activity, and investor sentiment. A recent spiral chart by analyst @therationalroot visually captures these recurring 4-year cycles, divided into three distinct phases.
The 3 Phases of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle
Each Bitcoin cycle unfolds in three predictable stages, closely tied to halving events:
Mature Bull Market (1 Year)
- Triggered by the halving, this phase culminates in a new all-time high (ATH)—often as a single peak (2017) or double top (2013, 2021).
- Ends with euphoric price surges and a "blow-off top."
Bear Market (1 Year)
- Follows the ATH, marked by an 80% average price drop and investor capitulation.
- Characterized by extreme pessimism and liquidation events.
Early Bull Market (2 Years)
- Begins after the market bottom, featuring slow accumulation and gradual price recovery.
- Dominated by skepticism but lays groundwork for the next halving-driven rally.
👉 Bitcoin halving countdown tracker
Fractal Similarities Across Cycles
The spiral chart highlights uncanny repetitions in:
- Timing: Each phase aligns with past cycles.
- Investor Psychology: Emotions like greed (bull market) and despair (bear market) recur predictably.
- On-Chain Data: The STH Cost Basis Z-Score reflects cyclical behavior of short-term holders.
"Bitcoin’s cycles aren’t just about price—they’re about human psychology repeating itself."
BTC Price Prediction: 2024 Outlook
- April 2024 (Halving): BTC likely near $40,000.
- Late 2024: Potential climb to $50,000–$60,000, approaching its ATH.
Key Variables:
- BlackRock’s spot ETF approval could accelerate gains.
- Global recession risks may disrupt cyclical patterns.
FAQ Section
Q: How long does each Bitcoin cycle last?
A: Approximately 4 years, anchored to halving events.
Q: What typically ends a bear market?
A: Capitulation events and investor exhaustion.
Q: Is the 2025 cycle expected to mirror past cycles?
A: While fractals suggest repetition, external factors (e.g., regulations) may introduce deviations.
👉 Bitcoin cycle cheatsheet for investors
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s spiral cycles offer a framework for understanding its volatile yet patterned nature. By recognizing these phases, investors can navigate markets with greater clarity—though surprises remain inevitable.