Bitcoin, historically notorious for its extreme volatility, has recently exhibited lower price fluctuations than the S&P 500. This shift signals a potential transformation in its market role—from a high-risk speculative asset to a more stable store of value.
Declining Volatility: A Structural Trend
The relative volatility of Bitcoin has followed a significant downtrend over recent months. Notably:
- Its volatility ratio against the S&P 500 has dropped sharply.
- Over the past three months, Bitcoin’s price stability has matched that of traditional equities.
André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, highlights this transition:
"Bitcoin's relative volatility has been in a structural downtrend... It's gradually transitioning from a risky asset to a safe-haven asset."
Market Behavior: Range-Bound and Steady
Recent trading patterns reinforce this trend:
- Bitcoin traded within a narrow range for weeks.
- On July 3, 2025, it briefly surged to an intraday high of $110,386 (CoinGecko data) before stabilizing.
👉 Why Bitcoin’s stability matters for investors
Divergent Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Role
While some institutions remain skeptical, others acknowledge Bitcoin’s dual nature:
- JPMorgan criticized Bitcoin’s performance during market turbulence, noting outflows from Bitcoin ETFs while gold ETFs gained.
- Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer likened Bitcoin to "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde", capable of acting as both a safe-haven and risk-on asset.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s volatility now rivals traditional indices.
- Institutional views on its safe-haven potential are mixed.
- Long-term adoption may hinge on its stability during crises.
FAQ: Bitcoin as a Safe-Haven Asset
Q: Is Bitcoin truly less volatile than the S&P 500 now?
A: Yes—over the past three months, their volatility ratios have converged.
Q: Why are institutions like JPMorgan skeptical?
A: Bitcoin’s correlation with risk-on assets during crises contrasts with gold’s historical resilience.
Q: Can Bitcoin serve both as a safe haven and speculative asset?
A: Absolutely. Its behavior depends on macroeconomic conditions, much like dual-personality assets.