The Traditional Chip Development Timeline
In traditional chip development, transforming a chip from the design phase into a finished product typically takes two years. For example, in the case of the Sia and Decred mining machines we developed, the entire process—from project initiation to product delivery—took approximately 13 months. If we were to repeat the same process, we estimate it could be further shortened to under nine months.
A significant portion of this time is spent on full-custom routing for the chip. However, a faster development method called place-and-route can reduce the chip development timeline by three months, though the resulting chips are 2–5 times slower than those produced by a full-custom team. If we opted for this approach, we believe the total product delivery time could be reduced to six months.
Industry Comparisons
We suspect that:
- Bitmain took about five months to create its A3 miner.
- Halong Mining likely spent nine months developing its B52 miner.
Given their relatively lower performance, it’s reasonable to assume both manufacturers used the place-and-route design method.
Hard Fork Adjustments & Accelerated Production
If the goal is simply adapting to a hard fork, the timeline shortens significantly.
- Preparedness Shortcuts – If a team anticipates needing a redesign, several shortcuts can reduce the time-to-market.
- Redesign Efficiency – Modifying an existing design takes far less time than starting from scratch. A well-prepared team with strong infrastructure might complete adjustments within two weeks.
- Production Prioritization – If factory production is fast-tracked, new chips can be ready in ~40 days.
- Assembly & Deployment – After manufacturing, chips are packaged (~one week), shipped to assemblers, and finally delivered to data centers for mining.
Theoretical vs. Practical Timelines
- Best-Case Scenario – With pre-booked wafers and components, a chip upgrade for a hard fork could take ~70 days (from redesign to fully operational mining).
Real-World Execution –
- Bitmain likely requires 3–4 months to adjust an existing chip for a hard fork.
- Without wafer inventory, this extends to 4–5 months.
- For non-Bitmain companies, add 30–60 days to these estimates.
FAQ
Q: How much faster is full-custom routing compared to place-and-route?
A: Full-custom routing produces chips 2–5 times faster but takes three months longer to develop.
Q: What’s the quickest possible time to adapt a mining chip for a hard fork?
A: Under ideal conditions (pre-booked wafers, optimized logistics), ~70 days.
Q: Why does Bitmain have an advantage in hard fork adjustments?
A: Stronger infrastructure, pre-existing wafer inventory, and streamlined logistics reduce turnaround time.