Bitcoin maintained its upward momentum above $108,500 during Asian trading hours on July 3rd, 2025, following a breakout from its recent narrow price range. The cryptocurrency briefly challenged the $110,000 level for the first time in nearly a month, though data suggests professional traders remain cautiously optimistic.
Key Market Movements
- Wednesday's Rally: Bitcoin surpassed $109,000 after testing a support level at $105,200
Macroeconomic Synchronicity: The surge coincided with:
- Eurozone monetary expansion data
- Signs of weakening in the U.S. labor market
- Derivatives Market Caution: Despite being just 2% below its all-time high, traders show reluctance to turn fully bullish
Derivatives Market Insights
👉 Bitcoin derivatives indicators reveal several interesting trends:
| Metric | Current Status | Neutral Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Futures Premium | Below 5% | 5% |
| 25% Delta Skew | 0% (neutral) | 6%+ (bearish) |
The stability in options markets suggests balanced risk perception between upward and downward movements.
Asian Market Dynamics
Chinese cryptocurrency demand shows notable declines, evidenced by:
- 1% Tether Discount against CNY (largest since mid-May)
- ETF Outflows: $342 million net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs
- Tariff War Concerns: Increasing trader anxiety about global trade tensions
July Volatility Forecast
K33 Research highlights three potential volatility catalysts:
Trump Administration Policies:
- Expansionary budget bill ("Big Beautiful Bill")
- Potential $3.3 trillion deficit increase
- July 9th Tariff Deadline
July 22nd Crypto Executive Order:
- Possible updates on U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves
"July presents concentrated Trump-related volatility potential," notes Vetle Lunde of K33 Research, while emphasizing current market stability without excessive leverage.
Standard Chartered's Bullish Outlook
The bank predicts Bitcoin could reach:
- $135,000 by Q3 2025
- $200,000 by Q4 2025
Analyst Geoff Kendrick cites:
- Strong institutional interest
- Corporate treasury buying
- Broken post-halving price decline patterns
- New support from ETFs absent in previous cycles
FAQ Section
Q: Why are traders cautious despite Bitcoin's price surge?
A: Derivatives metrics suggest professional traders await stronger confirmation of sustained upward momentum before committing fully bullish positions.
Q: What makes July particularly volatile for Bitcoin?
A: Multiple policy deadlines and potential macroeconomic shifts concentrated in this month create exceptional uncertainty.
Q: How does Standard Chartered justify its $200K prediction?
A: The analysis considers structural changes in market participation (ETFs, institutional buyers) absent in previous cycles, combined with traditional supply dynamics.
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