Bitfinex analysts suggest declining Bitcoin spot trading volumes may indicate a "local top," with market attention shifting to spot Bitcoin ETF performance this week.
As buying pressure weakens and profit-taking increases, cryptocurrency analysts observe Bitcoin's three-month rally could be losing momentum.
"Momentum is showing signs of decay for the first time during this uptrend," noted Bitfinex analysts in their Monday market report.
Key Market Developments
- Bitcoin surged ~41% from its April 9 low of $73,273 to $107,380 (CoinMarketCap data)
- Spot trading volumes cooled alongside reduced buy-side pressure
- Short-term holders (especially those entering below $80K) are actively taking profits
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ETF Inflows Become Critical Catalyst
Analysts emphasize Bitcoin's next move hinges on:
- Macroeconomic factors: Fed rate decision (July 30, 19% cut probability per CME FedWatch)
- Institutional demand: ETF inflows must sustain momentum
| Period | ETF Net Inflows | Data Source |
|-------------|----------------|----------------|
| June 9-27 | $4.63 billion | Farside Investors |
Economist Timothy Peterson described last week's $2.2B inflows as "massive," projecting continued positive momentum with 70% probability this week—historically correlating with upward price pressure.
Long-Term Holder Behavior Impacts Price
Capriole Investments' Charles Edwards identifies long-term holders (LTHs) as key resistance:
"Since January 2024 ETF launch, LTHs have been unloading positions to Wall Street—this explains BTC's consolidation near $100K despite institutional FOMO."
Bullish counterpoint: Economist Donald Dean observes Bitcoin forming a tight consolidation pattern on volume platforms, suggesting impending upside breakout.
FAQs
Q: Is Bitcoin's uptrend over?
A: Analysts view this as a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, with higher timeframe support levels holding.
Q: What would trigger the next rally?
A: Sustained ETF inflows + reduced LTH selling pressure + favorable macro conditions (rate cuts).
Q: How reliable are current support levels?
A: The $100K psychological level shows resilience, though volatility may persist until clearer catalysts emerge.
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Market Outlook
While short-term uncertainty exists, analysts highlight:
- Strong broader market structure
- Institutional adoption continuing through ETFs
- Historical post-consolidation breakout patterns
The transition phase underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain data and macroeconomic developments simultaneously.
Note: This analysis contains no investment recommendations. Conduct independent research before trading.