Over the past week, Toncoin (TON) has experienced a sharp 17% decline, with market sentiment remaining bearish. Despite earlier positive signs, concerns about its ecosystem and network growth triggered heavy sell-offs, amplified by whale activity. As of Thursday, TON fell to a critical support level of $2.90, down from its 2024 peak, highlighting the struggles of this once highly anticipated token.
Key Challenges Facing Toncoin
Toncoin's price faces persistent headwinds due to weak on-chain metrics and ecosystem performance. A telling indicator is the steep drop in daily transactions on the TON blockchain—from processing up to 20 million transactions to just 2.2 million per day. Monthly active wallets also plummeted from 5.2 million in February to 2.8 million currently.
This slowdown coincides with setbacks for TON-based tokens like Hamster Kombat and Catizen, which faced criticism for poorly executed airdrops and perceived unfair reward distributions. User engagement has further dwindled, with monthly active addresses dropping from 8.3 million in September 2024 to 2.3 million.
While TON's weekly decline aligns with broader market downturns triggered by geopolitical tariffs, most cryptocurrencies have shown recovery signs since the 90-day tariff pause. Yet, TON continues to fall 1.92% daily, underscoring challenges beyond macroeconomic factors.
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Whale Activity Exacerbates Decline
A sudden surge in whale selling in early April accelerated TON's drop. After briefly breaking the $3.95 resistance level—hinting at a potential rally to $4.80—whales offloaded holdings, driving a 26.6% crash in just 8 days.
Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook:
- Average Directional Index (ADX): Rises to 27, signaling strengthening downtrend.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Enters oversold territory.
Analysts now predict TON could drop to $2.00 (35% below current prices) unless buying pressure resurges.
Is Toncoin's Downturn Temporary?
Despite the slump, some remain cautiously optimistic. Steve Yun of the TON Foundation emphasizes the network’s resilience, citing ongoing developer interest and new programming languages like Tolk and Tact.
TON’s integration with Telegram wallets in 2023 briefly propelled it into the top 10 cryptos by market cap. However, TON has since lost 70%+ from its June 2024 high and now ranks #16, struggling to regain momentum.
Critical Price Levels to Watch
- Support: $2.88 → $2.68 → $2.37 (if downward pressure continues).
- Resistance: $3.88 → $4.12 (must break these for sustained recovery).
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FAQ
Q: Why is Toncoin dropping?
A: Weak ecosystem metrics, whale sell-offs, and broader market uncertainty drive the decline.
Q: Can Toncoin recover soon?
A: Potential rebounds depend on holding $2.88 support and reducing whale pressure.
Q: Is Toncoin a good long-term investment?
A: While the TON network shows developer activity, its price depends on overcoming current challenges.
Q: What’s next for Toncoin?
A: Traders should monitor $2.68–$3.88 range; breaking resistance could signal recovery.
Toncoin’s 17% weekly drop reflects deeper issues—from faltering adoption to whale-driven volatility. While technicals suggest further downside, holding key supports may offer hope. For now, the token’s fate hinges on ecosystem improvements and broader market stability.
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