Analyzing AAVE's Current Status Through On-Chain Data: Why Its Recent Performance Stands Out

Key Takeaways

• AAVE's circulating market cap: $2.3 billion USD, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.46 billion USD. Monthly new circulation: 43,000 AAVE tokens.
• On-chain data reveals: U.S. timezone investors dominate AAVE accumulation.
• Large holders' profitability: Most are profitable, but gains are modest. Significant token turnover since 2021 suggests reshuffled ownership.
• AAVE's accumulators: High-capital addresses, indicating institutional or wealthy individual interest.

1. AAVE Overview

Tokenomics

• Total supply: 16 million AAVE.
• Circulating supply: 14.93 million (93% of total).

• Allocation:

  • 13 million converted from LEND (2020).
  • 3 million reserved for ecosystem incentives (4,300 tokens released monthly).

Genesis Wallets

• Founding team holdings: 790,000 AAVE ($122 million USD) remain in original wallets.

2. On-Chain Token Distribution

2.1 Top 10 Holders

• Staking contract: 2.99 million AAVE (largest holder).

• Notable addresses:

  • Address #9: 330,000 unmigrated LEND tokens ($50 million USD)—likely lost access.
  • Blockchain Capital: 233,000 AAVE (long-term institutional holder).

2.2 Exchange Balances

• Binance: 2.19 million AAVE (13.07% of supply).
• Other CEXs: Coinbase, Kraken, Upbit.

• DEX liquidity:

  • Balancer: 880,000 AAVE ($170M liquidity).
  • Uniswap: $13M liquidity.

2.3 Staking Trends

• Current staked: 2.99 million AAVE (rebound from 1.97M low in 2022 bear market).
• Recent surge: Increased deposits since May 2024.

3. Exchange Flows & Timezone Analysis

Key Observations

• Net inflows: 28,000 AAVE to exchanges (August–September 2024).
• Prime Custody note: Coinbase holdings may reflect long-term custody, not trading.
• U.S. dominance: Peak activity aligns with UTC 15:00–17:00 (U.S. daytime).

👉 Explore AAVE's real-time liquidity on Balancer

4. Large Holder Profiles

ROI & Behavior

• 75% profitable: Median gain 20%; max 137%.
• 26% loss: Max drawdown 66%.

• Holding periods:

  • Median: 287 days (9 months).
  • 25% held >647 days.
• Low activity: Median 0.048 transactions/day (long-term holders).

Cost Basis Clusters

1. $85–$150: Majority (especially ~$100).
2. $200+: Early investors (low circulation).
3. <$70: High returns (minority).

5. Recent Accumulator Trends (60-Day Snapshot)

5.1 Accumulation Patterns

• Top tier: 23 addresses bought 1K–2K AAVE ($14K–$28K).
• Whale activity: One address added 26K AAVE ($400K).

5.2 Address Traits

• New entrants: Median address age 281.5 days.
• Conservative trading: Median 0.0731 daily transactions.
• Focused portfolios: 50% hold ≤3 other tokens.

5.3 Asset Holdings

• Heavyweight investors: 25% hold $1.5M–$20.5M in total assets.
• Portfolio bias: ETH, USDT, ONDO, UNI (traditional assets over memes).

FAQs

Q1: Why is AAVE staking increasing in 2024?
A1: Renewed confidence in DeFi + incentives alignment post-market recovery.

Q2: How does U.S. activity impact AAVE's price?
A2: Higher liquidity and institutional interest during U.S. hours amplify volatility.

Q3: Are large holders selling soon?
A3: Low transaction frequency suggests holding—cost basis analysis indicates patience.

👉 Dive deeper into AAVE's tokenomics here