CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reveals that long-term Bitcoin holders currently average 220% unrealized profits, despite Bitcoin's price reaching $107,000. This figure appears surprisingly low compared to historical benchmarks:
Key Profitability Insights
- 300% profit level: Requires Bitcoin to climb to **$135,200** (based on $33,800 average cost basis)
- 350% profit level: Achieved at $154,400, matching December 2024 peaks
- Current lower margins suggest reduced selling pressure from long-term holders
👉 Why Bitcoin's profit cycles matter for investors
Historical Context
- March 2024: MVRV ratio hit 300% at $74,500
- December 2024: Peaked at 350% when BTC reached $108,000
- 2021 Comparison: Unrealized profits dropped from 1,230% to 340% despite price increases
"LTH unrealized profits continue declining, now approaching October 2024 correction levels."
— Darkfost, July 2025
Market Implications
- ETF dynamics and spot market liquidity could alter trajectory
- Lower profits indicate fewer coins moving at current prices
- Economic shifts remain wildcards for volatility
Price Projections
| Scenario | Target Price | Profit Level |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $120,000 | 255% |
| Moderate | $135,200 | 300% |
| Aggressive | $154,400 | 350% |
👉 How to interpret Bitcoin's on-chain metrics
FAQs
Q: Why are current profits considered low?
A: Compared to 350% in December 2024 and 1,230% in April 2021, today's 220% reflects higher purchase prices by long-term holders.
Q: When might Bitcoin peak this cycle?
A: Analysts suggest August-September 2025, with targets between $120,000-$150,000.
Q: What risks should investors watch?
A: ETF flows, macroeconomic conditions, and sudden sell-offs from short-term traders.
Final Thoughts
While chain data suggests room for growth, investors should balance:
- On-chain metrics
- Market liquidity
- Broader economic indicators
The market shows no immediate overheating signs, but vigilance remains crucial.