Mounting tensions in the Middle East and a concerning Bitcoin chart pattern may drive BTC prices below the $100,000 psychological level.
Key Insights
- BTC shows vulnerability amid geopolitical risks and investor risk-off sentiment
- Technical indicators point to a normal correction range (3.5% pullback)
- Pattern analysis warns of potential deeper retracement to $100,000 support
Market Context
Bitcoin reacted sharply to escalating Iran-Israel tensions, dropping 3.5% from its $110,653 weekly high to $106,600 by Thursday. Researcher Axel Adler Jr notes this represents a typical "soft reversal point" in uptrends:
"Expect short-term consolidation below $108K when funding rates stay positive but open interest declines."
Source: Axel Adler Jr/X
The Bull Trap Scenario
The current BTC rally mirrors January 2025's pattern where:
- Prices broke descending trendlines after absorbing liquidity
- Failed to surpass all-time highs
- RSI rebounded from 50 but faced resistance at 60
Critical support levels:
- Immediate: $105,000 (Monday's low)
- Major: $100,000 (liquidity zone)
👉 Why institutional investors remain bullish long-term
FAQs
Q: What confirms the bull trap?
A: Sustained trading below $105K would validate the pattern.
Q: How to invalidate this scenario?
A: Closing above $108K consistently would preserve bullish momentum.
Q: What's driving the geopolitical risk premium?
A: Potential Israeli military action against Iran escalated safe-haven demand.
The cryptocurrency market continues demonstrating heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic developments. While short-term volatility persists, blockchain fundamentals suggest enduring value proposition.
👉 Expert analysis: Bitcoin's next halving cycle
This content represents market commentary only, not investment advice. Always conduct independent research before trading.